A Fazenda 17 Enquete Roça: Carol, Matheus ou Toninho — Quem Sai Hoje?
8ª Roça define eliminação decisiva enquanto peões já decretam veredito antecipado
The air inside the farmhouse at Itapecerica da Serra is thick with certainty. In the early hours of Thursday, November 13, 2025, as Brazil sleeps, the remaining contestants of A Fazenda 17 are already celebrating what they believe to be a foregone conclusion. Matheus Martins, they say, is leaving tonight. The enquetes — those unofficial polls that have become the heartbeat of reality television in Brazil — seem to confirm their conviction.
But this is reality TV. And in reality TV, nothing is certain until presenter Adriane Galisteu announces the name at 22h30 Brasília time on Record TV.
The Power of the Public Vote
Carol Lekker, Matheus Martins, and Toninho Tornado face elimination tonight following Saory Cardoso's victory in Wednesday night's Prova do Fazendeiro. The farmhand challenge, broadcast live on PlayPlus, saved Saory from the berlinda — that dreaded four-person hot seat where dreams of the R$ 2 million prize either survive or die.
Now three remain. And according to DCI's latest enquete data, Carol Lekker commands 55.17% of public support for permanence, followed by Toninho Tornado with 37.93%. Matheus Martins trails with just 6.9% — a gap so wide it's prompted his fellow contestants to treat his departure as settled fact.
"Uma certeza: ele sai," declared host Dudu Camargo from the farmhouse veranda, his words captured by the 24-hour live feed. Saory, fresh from her Fazendeiro victory, agreed immediately. "Também tenho." Dudu sealed the prognosis: "Isso é fato!"
"Por favor, Deus! Por favor! No mínimo, um Top 10 pra eu falar pra minha mãe: 'Oh, mãe, pelo menos fui Top 10!' Quero mudar muito a vida dela."
— Matheus Martins, speaking to allies about his mother
How We Got Here
The formation of this eighth roça was anything but simple. It began Tuesday night with a double elimination — a Super Paiol twist that sent couple Michelle Barros and Shia Phoenix home in a surprise eviction that shocked the remaining contestants. Rádio Itatiaia reported the pair were among four contestants placed in an emergency roça after receiving the fewest public votes, with two facing immediate elimination.
Then came the regular roça formation. Fazendeiro Wallas Arrais made his direct nomination: Saory Cardoso, citing accusations of calumny he felt she'd levied against him. The house vote followed, sealed by Duda Wendling's orange power — a lampião advantage that gave her four votes at once. She used them all on Matheus, consolidating his place in the berlinda.
Matheus, in turn, pulled Carol Lekker from the Baia when it was his turn to choose. Toninho Tornado completed the quartet by losing in the Resta Um dynamic — a process of elimination that leaves one contestant standing alone, automatically filling the final hot seat.
The white power, revealed during formation, was held by Luiz Otávio Mesquita. He used it strategically to prevent Saory from being vetoed from the Fazendeiro challenge — a decision that proved crucial when she won the competition and secured her safety.
Toninho, exercising his veto power, blocked Matheus from competing in the Prova do Fazendeiro. That single decision may have sealed Matheus's fate. Without the chance to save himself through competition, the 27-year-old model now relies entirely on public support — support the enquetes suggest he doesn't have.
The Enquete Economy
In Brazilian reality television, enquetes are both barometer and battlefield. These unofficial polls — run by entertainment websites, social media influencers, and fan communities — don't determine the official outcome. That power belongs solely to votes cast on the R7 portal, Record TV's official voting platform where viewers can vote unlimited times for free.
But enquetes shape perception. They influence fan mobilization. They tell torcidas — organized fan clubs supporting specific contestants — where to focus their energy. A contestant leading in enquetes gains momentum; one trailing faces demoralization among supporters.
According to Metrópoles' reporting at 23h45, the numbers tell a brutal story: Carol leads with 55.17%, Toninho follows with 37.93%, and Matheus limps along at 6.9%. The UOL enquete shows similar trends, though with slightly different proportions. Across multiple platforms — DCI, Folha de Curitiba, Notícias da TV — the pattern holds: Carol dominates, Toninho survives, Matheus struggles.
These aren't just numbers. They're the collective judgment of millions of Brazilians who've watched these three contestants navigate alliances, betrayals, farm chores, and sleep deprivation for weeks. In A Fazenda, unlike some reality formats, the public votes to save contestants, not eliminate them. The contestant with the fewest votes goes home. It's a subtle but significant difference — one that frames voting as an act of support rather than condemnation.
Inside the Farmhouse
While Brazil votes, life inside the sede continues its strange rhythm. Pipoca Moderna captured the mood in the hours after Saory's Fazendeiro victory: the majority group celebrated openly, treating Matheus's elimination as inevitable.
In the kitchen, Carol Lekker — herself facing elimination — expressed confidence. "Nossa, o Matheus tem que sair amanhã," she said. Luiz Otávio Mesquita went further, guaranteeing the result.
But not everyone shares their certainty. Maria Caporusso, involved in an affair with Matheus inside the house, lamented his potential departure with characteristic humor. "Tirar o homem bonito da casa? Pelo amor de Deus! Eu sempre deixo vocês verem o tanquinho dele, filmei na câmera-trato… tenham consideração!"
Stylist Walério Araújo expressed theatrical despair at losing another attractive male contestant. "Comunidade, eu não posso! Já perdi o Will!"
These moments — caught on the 24-hour live feed available to PlayPlus subscribers — reveal the emotional complexity of reality television. Contestants simultaneously compete and bond, strategize and sympathize. They form genuine connections inside an artificial environment designed to test those very connections.
The Stakes
For Matheus, tonight's elimination carries weight beyond the game. In conversations with allies, he's spoken repeatedly about wanting to change his mother's life. The R$ 2 million prize represents transformation — not just for him, but for his family. "Quero mudar muito a vida dela," he told Maria, his voice carrying the hope and desperation that fuel reality competition.
Making it to the top ten would mean something. It would validate the weeks of discomfort, the public scrutiny, the strategic gameplay that sometimes feels like moral compromise. It would be a story to tell — not victory, but honorable survival.
Yet the enquetes suggest even that modest goal might slip away tonight.
Carol Lekker faces her own reckoning. Despite leading the enquetes, she's not safe. Voting patterns can shift dramatically in the final hours, especially with organized torcidas mobilizing. Her strong showing reflects broad public appeal, but in A Fazenda, passionate minority support can sometimes overcome lukewarm majority preference if the dedicated fans vote more intensely.
Toninho Tornado occupies the middle ground — neither dominant nor doomed. His 37.93% showing suggests a solid base of supporters, enough to potentially survive if Matheus's numbers hold or if Carol's support fractures. But Toninho faces his own complications. Folha de Curitiba notes his recent announcement that he plans to nominate popular contestant Dudu Camargo at the first opportunity, claiming he felt betrayed during roça formation. That declaration might alienate Dudu's substantial fan base, potentially costing Toninho votes he needs tonight.
The Seventh Roça Shadow
This eighth roça occurs in the shadow of last week's dramatic seventh elimination. Rayane Figliuzzi, Tamires Assis, and Yoná Sousa faced off after Wallas Arrais won the Fazendeiro challenge. The formation involved its own complexities: Toninho Tornado, then serving as Fazendeiro, nominated Rayane directly citing conflicts that included a fight resulting in contestant Martina Sanzi's expulsion.
Yoná received eleven house votes, becoming the second roceira. The white power prevented a Baia pull, instead forcing a new vote between two Baia residents chosen by the power holder. Tamires ended up in the roça, and Wallas completed the quartet through Resta Um.
But then drama: Galisteu announced Wallas's orange power — which could have saved him — was canceled due to inappropriate behavior. The specifics weren't detailed, but the cancellation left Wallas vulnerable in the Resta Um dynamic.
Wallas ultimately won that week's Fazendeiro challenge, escaping elimination. The pattern illustrates A Fazenda's central dynamic: strategic gameplay intersects with physical competition and public perception. Master all three, and you survive. Fail at any, and you're vulnerable.
How to Vote
For Brazilians following tonight's drama, the voting process is straightforward. Visit the official A Fazenda 17 page on R7.com. Select the contestant you want to remain in the competition — remember, you're voting to save, not eliminate. Submit your vote. Repeat as many times as you want; the system allows unlimited voting.
Voting closes shortly before the live broadcast begins at 22h30. The result will be announced during the show, with Galisteu building tension before revealing which contestant received the fewest votes and must leave immediately.
Viewers can watch on Record TV via traditional broadcast, or stream through Record Plus (formerly PlayPlus), the network's digital platform. The free tier requires only name and email registration, providing the same live signal as television. Premium subscribers access multiple camera angles and 24-hour feeds showing daily life inside the farmhouse during commercial breaks.
The Season's Arc
With tonight's elimination, A Fazenda 17 loses its tenth contestant. The season began with twenty participants — a mix of influencers, entertainers, models, and public figures seeking career revitalization, financial security, or fame's validation. Week by week, the group shrinks through a predictable rhythm: Monday's Prova de Fogo determines lampião powers; Tuesday sees roça formation with Fazendeiro nomination, house votes, and strategic power plays; Wednesday brings the Prova do Fazendeiro offering one last escape route; Thursday delivers elimination's verdict.
Much like unexpected career turns in media, reality television creates sudden shifts that alter trajectories permanently. One week you're safe, the next you're fighting for survival. The format mirrors life's precarity, compressed into weekly cycles that feel both eternal and fleeting to participants.
And perhaps that's the real draw. We watch because we recognize something true in the artifice. We see people navigating social hierarchies, forming alliances, managing public perception — the same skills required in offices, schools, families. A Fazenda isolates these dynamics, strips away distractions, and forces contestants to survive on social intelligence alone.
The farm becomes a laboratory. The contestants become specimens. And we become scientists, observing, analyzing, ultimately rendering judgment through our votes.
Tonight's Verdict
By midnight, Brazil will know. Carol, Matheus, or Toninho will pack their belongings, say rushed goodbyes, and walk through the farmhouse gate back into regular life where they'll spend weeks adjusting to recognition, reading what strangers said about them, confronting the person they became on television versus the person they believed they were.
The enquetes point toward Matheus. The housemates agree. Even Matheus himself seems resigned, his prayers for top ten placement suggesting he's prepared for departure rather than fighting for survival.
But enquetes aren't votes. Perception isn't reality. And sometimes — not often, but sometimes — the public surprises everyone. Torcidas mobilize. Quiet supporters find their voice. The underdog surge occurs.
Or maybe the enquetes are right. Maybe Matheus leaves tonight, his dream of changing his mother's life deferred, his A Fazenda journey ending at ninth or tenth place rather than the finale he hoped for. Maybe Carol's lead holds, and she survives to strategize another week. Maybe Toninho's middle position proves sustainable, his 37% enough to outlast Matheus's 6%.
The only certainty is uncertainty — that delicious tension that keeps millions of Brazilians refreshing vote counts, debating in WhatsApp groups, defending their favorites online. It's participatory drama, democracy as entertainment, and tonight at 22h30, it reaches another climax.
Somewhere in Itapecerica da Serra, Carol, Matheus, and Toninho are preparing. They've showered, chosen outfits, rehearsed composure. They know the cameras will capture their reaction when Galisteu announces the name. They know that moment — seconds of raw emotion broadcast to millions — might define how Brazil remembers them.
They know, too, that only one of them will hear their name tonight. The other two will exhale relief, grateful for seven more days of possibility, of alliance-building and challenge-competing and slow-motion living under constant surveillance.
"Uma certeza: ele sai. Isso é fato!"
— Dudu Camargo, declaring Matheus's fate to fellow contestants
But in reality television, as in life, certainty is a comfortable illusion. The only truth arrives when Adriane Galisteu opens that envelope, looks into the camera, and speaks the name that ends one journey and extends two others.
Until then, Brazil waits. The enquetes update. The votes accumulate. And three contestants try to breathe normally while their fate hangs suspended in the collective judgment of a nation.
Tonight, we'll all find out if Dudu's certainty was wisdom or hubris, if the enquetes were prophecy or noise, if Matheus's prayer for top ten will be answered or denied.
The vote closes soon. The broadcast begins at 22h30. And somewhere between now and then, millions of Brazilians will click one final time, choosing who deserves another week, who gets another chance, who continues the journey toward two million reais and the validation that comes with victory.
For official voting and live broadcast information, visit A Fazenda 17 on R7.com. The elimination airs Thursday, November 13, 2025, at 22h30 Brasília time on Record TV and Record Plus.
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